The election of Leo XIV broke one of the geopolitical paradigms of modern Catholicism: the pope cannot come from a world (or colonial) superpower, whether Spain, Portugal, France, or the United States. The geopolitical upheaval brought on by a Trumpist America has contributed to the breaking of that centuries-long rule. But to some, the election of a U.S.-born pope didn't seem so impossible this time.
The conclave also put an end to the state of exception that was created by the former prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, Benedict XVI, when he announced his resignation in February 2013. That decision established a modern precedent, introduced the new title of "pope emeritus," and entailed a longer-than-expected cohabitation in the Vatican with his successor. Francis ended his pontificate in what you might call the traditional way.
Pope Francis's solemn funeral was not a low-key ceremony like that of his predecessor. And the embrace of the deceased pope by the many millions who mourned him was a clear rejection of the narrative peddled by some (especially in the United States) that Francis sowed "division" and "schism." His choice to be buried outside the Vatican, in Santa Maria Maggiore -- on the other side of the Tiber -- was symbolically appropriate for this pope who insisted on reaching out to the "peripheries." Francis spoke to the hearts of many, and far beyond the fence of the Church. Popular consensus has political implications for the Church, and Francis's appeal could not be ignored in the election of his successor. The future will show whether Francis's pontificate was an exception or a parenthesis in Church history.
Francis's papacy got off to an unusual start, of course, with the previous pope awaiting the results of the 2013 conclave just a few miles away. Benedict still exerted a significant pull on many Catholics for whom he was a figure of theological identity -- and in some cases an ideological one. The 2025 conclave was significant in its own way, taking place amid the process of synodal reform and involving a larger and more diverse College of Cardinals; further, from a theological point of view, it wasn't dominated by "progressives," as some had insinuated. Fears that the cardinals' lack of familiarity with one another would lead to a long and difficult conclave proved unfounded. Many did know each other thanks to their participation in the assemblies of the Synod on synodality; further, many by now are acquainted with digital communication -- the clerical hierarchy is in fact well-interconnected. And while there were concerns about outside influence, the conclave seemed impermeable to it (although the Trumpist provocateur Steve Bannon insisted the election of Leo XIV was rigged).
There are numerous and contradicting opinions on the dynamics at play in Leo's election. To be sure, the choice of Robert Prevost is a sign of continuity -- on Vatican II, on Francis, and on synodality. Further, Leo is the second consecutive pope to come from a religious order and from Latin America. Yes, the Church is more global, and there are more African and Asian Catholics and cardinals. But the Americas are still fundamental for post-Vatican II Catholicism. The United States may no longer be the superpower it was, but U.S. Catholicism is a superpower relative to Europe. This papal election harkens some soul-searching for the old continent.
Prevost is also the first missionary elevated to the papacy in modern times. But his pan-American experience and time in Peru have tended to overshadow the fact that he was a cardinal working in the Roman Curia when he was elected. He likely comes across as much more energetic than the popes that Catholics under the age of forty remember. He's the youngest since John Paul II, and having been born in the United States ten years after World War II, he will definitely be viewed differently from his three immediate predecessors, who were born in the 1920s and '30s. This also (potentially) heralds a long pontificate.
We are just a few days in, but there are some decisions in the coming weeks that will say something about his government. Besides the expected decision to keep Cardinal Pietro Parolin as his Secretary of State, one relevant institutional question concerns what he'll do with the office itself, which Francis marginalized both in international relations and the governance of the Curia and Vatican in general. In April 2013, four weeks after his election, Francis created a "council of cardinals" (or C9), which continued to meet until almost the end of his pontificate. But Francis never institutionalized the C9 -- and Leo XIV might decide to do without it. And of course, Leo XIV will soon need a prefect of the Dicastery for the Bishops to replace himself. Finally, it will be interesting to see what Leo XIV -- an American -- will do with the Pontifical Commission for the Protection of Minors, which Francis decided in 2022 to position within the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith, but in a precarious position within the system of the Roman Curia. U.S.-based advocacy organizations for victims and survivors of abuse are sure to monitor the application of the motu proprio Vos estis very closely.
There are longer-term issues too. It will be interesting to observe the relationship between the first U.S.-born pope and the Roman Curia in terms of management culture. Cardinal George Pell, with his brash anti-Italian sentiments, certainly made few friends while head of Vatican finances. And the case of Cardinal Angelo Becciu (who is appealing his conviction and was excluded from the conclave), along with unresolved financial problems at the Vatican, continue to inflict damage on the credibility of key offices in the Curia.
Leo XIV will also establish his own, particular relationship with the U.S. Catholic bishops -- and at a crucial time, with the Trump administration becoming increasingly authoritarian. Francis's February letter to the U.S. bishops -- really a response to J.D. Vance, the Catholic vice president, on his misuse of ordo amoris -- is in some sense the political testament of Francis's re-reading of Leo XIII on Rerum novarum (1891) and Testem benevolentiae (1899) on "Americanism." And it may have been a foreshadowing of the result of the recent conclave.