The A's will send red-hot rookie Jacob Lopez to the mound for today's tilt against Minnesota.
With the Twins countering with ace Joe Ryan, my MLB picks are taking the No Run First inning prop in that clash.
Check out the rest of my best YRFI and NRFI bets for Tuesday, August 19 below.
Buehler is in the bottom 10th percentile in strikeout rate, expected ERA (5.65) and expected batting average (.287). Sugano is even worse, sitting in the bottom fifth percentile in strikeout rate, xBA (.297), and xERA (5.65).
The fact that neither pitcher makes batters miss is particularly problematic given this matchup. Both lineups struggle with strikeouts but hit the ball extremely hard when they make contact.
Boston is second in the majors in exit velocity and sixth in barrel rate while the O's are fourth in exit velocity and ninth in barrel rate.
Rangers at Royals: YRFI (Play at Thrillzz)
The Kansas City Royals struggled at the dish earlier this year. That said, they have dangerous hitters at the top of their lineup which is why they rank ninth in the majors in run first inning rate (31.2%).
They've been hitting better in recent weeks, ranking fourth in the majors in OPS (.781) over the last 30 days.
Today, they host the Texas Rangers and righty Merrill Kelly who has a 3.36 ERA through 25 starts. Kelly's expected ERA is significantly higher at 4.03 and he has an ugly 5.40 ERA in the opening frame.
Royals starter Seth Lugo has an even worse 5.48 ERA in the first inning. He's been in a slump, pitching to a 7.42 ERA with a 1.78 WHIP over his last six starts.
The Rangers hit better on the road than they do at home, ranking seventh in run first inning rate in away contests (30.2%).
Athletics at Twins: NRFI (Play at Thrillzz)
Athletics rookie Jacob Lopez hasn't allowed a single run in 24 innings over his last four outings. He's been dominant in the first inning where he has a 1.20 ERA with an OBA of .151 across 15 starts.
Advanced analytics love Lopez who is in the top 10th percentile in exit velocity while sitting in the top 20th percentile in barrel rate, strikeout rate, and xBA (.218).
He should mow down a Minnesota Twins lineup that is 28th in the majors in batting average (.222) over the last 30 days. That said, the Twins have an excellent starter of their own tonight in Joe Ryan. The All-Star has a 2.72 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP through 139 innings.