WASHINGTON (TNND) -- "Several years ago I asked @NHC_Atlantic [the National Hurricane Center]to show me what the worst case storm hitting Florida would look like.What they showed me back then is almost identical to the #Milton forecast now."
That is how Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., characterized the projected forecast and impact of Hurricane Milton to his state Monday afternoon, roughly two hours after it reached its first estimated peak as a Category 5 hurricane (it was upgraded back up to Category 5 Tuesday afternoon).
While much of the Southeastern U.S. remains in recovery mode from the impact of Hurricane Helene two weeks ago, including Florida, the potential devastation from Milton to The Sunshine State could be unprecedented for a place used to weathering tropical storms. Data from the National Hurricane Center and estimates by meteorologists theorize that Milton could be one of the top 10 most destructive storms of its kind in the Atlantic, eclipsing even the wrath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The storm has already set records as the fastest intensifying storm in the Gulf of Mexico, having been recorded as a hurricane first Sunday afternoon before being categorized as Category 5 roughly 24 hours later.
What makes the potential impact of Milton so singular in Atlantic hurricane history is the direction it will make landfall. As a CNN meteorologist explained Tuesday morning, many hurricanes are like car crashes where the vehicles clip one another; Milton is a "t-bone" crash, a brutal impact by the front of one car to the broadside of the other which allows for the greatest release of all its built up potential energy. That translates to, among other things, hurricane weather warnings going into effect for an area of Florida that stretches from coast to coast through the center of the state and covering a population of almost 10 million people.
Many of those people are concentrated in a handful of major cities on each coast and Orlando in the center. These five metropolitan areas are the ones that are due to receive the brunt of Milton's ire and this is how that can impact them.
The city of Tampa is nestled at the rear of the Tampa Bay, of course, but dense cityscapes spread around the bay to the West of its namesake urban center down to St. Petersburg at the tip of the Pinellas peninsula and Clearwater sitting on the Gulf coast directly. While current estimates have Milton's central mass now making landfall just south of the Tampa Bay over Sarasota, this metropolitan region of roughly 3.3 million people represents the largest demographic area in the storm's path, and the most at-risk one.
As Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told CNN Monday night and repeated throughout Tuesday to those who have not yet evacuated: "You are going to die.
While Milton is expected to hit the Tampa Bay as a Category 3 with winds down to 125 mph (from a peak of around 180 mph late Monday night), that will set a 100-year record, surpassing the one set in 1921 when the Tarpon Springs Hurricane arrived at speeds of 115 mph. The National Weather Service defines the impact of such wind speeds as "catastrophic damage" which can be "expected to man-made and natural structures. Well constructed homes will have substantial damage to roof and walls. Destruction may occur to homes with gabled roofs, with the wind lifting them off."
More specifically, the NWS warns that "many" industrial buildings are likely to be destroyed with others suffering guaranteed roof and wall damage, while high rise office buildings are likely to physically sway and suffer structural damage and a high number of windows will be blown out. For organic material, i.e. people and animals, exposure to the winds and gusts alone even without the risk of debris impact carries the potential for serious injury and possible death. The government also estimates the damage will lead to a lack of utility services for water and electricity for days if not weeks.
But the weather-related danger many meteorologists are focusing on is the estimated 10-15 foot storm surge expected with Milton's landfall. While less dramatic than a tidal wave, the surge represents how far the water will spill up 10 to 15 feet above the regular sea and tide levels, flooding many ground-level areas and corroding structures due to the force of the water pressure. "Water weighs approximately 1,700 pounds per cubic yard; extended pounding by frequent waves can demolish any structure not specifically designed to withstand such forces," the NWS notes in its storm surge guidance.
The estimated eight to 12 inches of rainfall between Tuesday night and Friday night will only add to the severe flash flood warnings (70% or higher) that stretch across the area and up to Orlando.
The former winter homes of early 20th century American industrialists like Thomas Edison and Henry Ford, the metropolitan area spanning the western bank of theCaloosahatchee River through Cape Coral and Ft. Myers appears to be on the edge of Milton's cyclone, but still at risk for colossal damage to homes, workplaces and infrastructure.
Like Tampa Bay up the coast, the city region known as the "gateway of Southwest Florida" is estimated to get hurricane-force winds (meaning potential similar damage as noted above) and a storm surge of up to a potential 12 feet. While rainfall estimates drop to around four to six inches over the next three days, decreasing flash flood warnings to around 40%, the area will be severely waterlogged.
Perhaps the worst harbinger for residents of both west coast Florida metro areas is the announcement by beloved comfort food chain Waffle House of numerous closures of its restaurants around both regions. The Waffle House Index, the measure by which the franchise measures conditions for scaled-back or cessation of its 24 hours a day, 365 days a year operations, is in the red for many branches by Tampa and Ft. Myers, indicating the likelihood of severe damage and or severe flooding. Former FEMA headCraig Fugate was known to use the WHI as an unofficial metric for disaster preparation.
If you get there and the Waffle House is closed? That's really bad," he told the Wall Street Journal in 2011.
Milton is expected to fall to a Category 2 hurricane by the time it passes the Orlando metropolitan area, home to around 2.6 million people, in the late hours of Wednesday night or early hours of Thursday morning. While the landlocked central Florida hub for tourism and entertainment will not see the risk of coastal flooding from storm surge, the still-strong winds and estimated rainfall are expected to leave a serious impact to the area home to "the Happiest Place on Earth."
As Milton's trajectory changes, the path will take it farther south of the city, whereas before it was estimated to be much closer. That being said, estimates from the NWS still place Orlando along a central zone for major flash flooding warnings of at least 70% and rainfall of eight to 12 inches.
Wind speeds are estimated to fall somewhere between 50-80 mph, which can still cause significant damage to electrical wire systems and launch unsecured objects into the air as projectiles at best. At worst, and at the higher end of wind estimates, houses "of poor to average construction" are likely to suffer major damage -- including partial or complete roof and or wall collapses -- and windows blown out at homes and office buildings. Trees can be uprooted and snapped and all branches will be broken.
I can definitely tell, based on the dive bar experience, that the real Floridians are a little freaked out,"Christina Hollerbach, owner of Hollerbach's German Restaurant in downtown Sanford, Florida, told the Orlando Sentinel. "Instead of having hurricane parties, we're getting ready for a major impact.
Admittedly, there are no "major" population centers on Florida's East Coast like Tampa Bay or Orlando, but for name recognition and embodying the kind of mid-size coastal resort town found along that side of the state, Daytona Beach works as a stand in. The home of NASCAR's iconic Daytona 500, and a city with a population of around 78,000, Daytona Beach's experience of Milton will somewhat depend on how the hurricane's final path ultimately takes. Estimates show that, if Milton sticks closer to the original projection taking it along a near straight line parallel to Tampa, Orlando and Daytona, the city could experience rainfall in the higher range of 12 to 13 inches, on top of an estimated maximum of six feet of storm surge.
Even though the storm will have dropped down to Category 1 by the time it reaches Florida's East Coast, cities like Daytona Beach still in the band of hurricane-force wind warnings (winds from 73 to 110 mph) must content with the threats to life and property spelled out in the forecast information above.
"The last I checked, it looked like we could get 8 to 10 inches of rain and winds in excess of 70 mph," Holly Hill City Manager Joe Forte told The Dayton-Beach News Journal.
If it (Milton) goes further south (than currently predicted) we may have less of an impact. If it goes further north, we may see more.
Indeed, Angie Bridges, 47, a resident of Debray, told the same paper that Milton feels like a different sort of animal.
"I've lived here since 1985 and I feel like this one is the worst to come through in terms of wind and rain," she said. "This one just feels different."