After falling in five games during last season's Western Conference Finals, Anthony Edwards reportedly told his teammates they'd be back on this stage. Fast forward a year, and he's delivered on that promise.
This time around, though, Minnesota enters the series as a significant underdog. The Oklahoma City Thunder were arguably the league's most dominant team throughout the regular season, and they rightfully come in as the favorites.
However, my Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions and NBA betting picks lean toward Oklahoma City facing some early adversity in Game 1 -- a common hangover effect after the emotional high of a Game 7 win. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May 19.
Who will win Timberwolves vs Thunder Game 1?
The Oklahoma City Thunder being 7.5-point favorites is surprising -- and that -305 moneyline? Kinda wild. Think about what that means: sportsbooks are basically saying the Minnesota Timberwolves only win this game one out of four times. Even with OKC coming off a tough seven-game series and just two days of rest?
This section's called "Who will win?" -- not "Which moneyline has the most value?" But if we were talking value, Minnesota would be the easy pick.
And honestly, there's a legit case that the Timberwolves just straight-up win this one. They've had six full days to rest and recover after taking out the Warriors, so they should be the freshest team left in the playoffs. They've also been rolling -- 7-1 against the spread and 7-1 outright in their last eight games, including a big win in L.A. as six-point dogs.
Since March 1, they're 25-6 overall and 21-10 ATS. That's not some random stat -- it lines up with when Julius Randle came back from injury. So yeah, oddsmakers might be sleeping on Minnesota here. Fade them at your own risk.
Ascribe as much credit for this to Steph Curry as you wish, the raw fact is that Golden State had the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA following the All-Star Break. The combination of James Butler and Draymond Green worked on that end, pacing the Warriors to a defense 1.1 points better per 100 possessions than even the Thunder's following the All-Star Break.
And the Timberwolves solved that defense in the final three games of the last round. In one 50-minute segment bridging late Game 3 through the first three quarters of Game 4 -- before a blowout turned sloppy in the fourth quarter -- Minnesota scored 137 points. In Game 5, it scored 121 and very clearly let off the gas in the fourth quarter thanks to a 21-point lead entering the series-clinching frame.
Through those final nine quarters (plus two minutes), the Timberwolves shot 35-of-72 from deep, 48.6%. They could do just about nothing wrong, except turning over the ball. That was a significant problem, committing 21 turnovers in each of the final three games.
Turnovers could doom Minnesota against Oklahoma City, undoubtedly a focus from head coach Chris Finch and his staff during these six days of rest. But otherwise, the Timberwolves' offense found its rhythm against a defense arguably as good if not better than the Thunder's.
With Oklahoma City possibly worn out from last round -- playing Nikola Jokic exhausts everyone -- Minnesota may even try to push the pace in Game 1.
Regardless, the Thunder typically force opponents to shoot 3-pointers -- No. 3 in the NBA after the All-Star Break at 46.2% in 3-pointers attempted against frequency. Right now, that is a risky strategy against the Timberwolves.
Timberwolves vs Thunder same-game parlay
Playing Minnesota to have the highest scoring quarter in this game is both correlated to the Timberwolves team total Over 104.5 and a nod toward what should be a Thunder letdown. Whether it is a psychological comedown or simply physical fatigue, it is only logical to expect Oklahoma City to be a bit worse for wear from Game 7.
Adding Naz Reid to hit at least two 3-pointers is simply good practice. Reid is not shooting as much in these playoffs as Minnesota would like, another probable coaching point from the near-week off.
The Timberwolves would like him to shoot more in part because he has hit 46.7% of his 3-pointers this postseason, taking 4.5 per game. As the Thunder rely on a disciplined and extended shell to keep opponents out of the paint, Reid can shoot over the top of it to put an initial crack into that defense.
Timberwolves vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
Timberwolves vs Thunder trend
Minnesota has hit the Over on its Team Total in seven of 10 games this postseason, clearing it by 3.2 points on average, even when including the three Unders. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Thunder.