The 2010s were an emotional decade. Even the birds were angry. Yet between the cold-pressed juices and hot sauce podcasts, one key tropical ingredient was missing: major hurricane landfalls on the U.S. East Coast.
In fact, while hurricane seasons since 2006 have seen historically high U.S. landfall activity, all ten Category 3, 4, or 5 landfalls have occurred between Texas and the Florida Keys. Compare this to a similarly busy period between 1945 and 1964, in which five Gulf Coast major hurricanes were accompanied by a whopping eight from South Florida to New England.
Reels and 'Toks to the contrary, Hurricane Erin did not snap the East Coast's 21-year lucky streak following 2004's Hurricane Jeanne. And it's a good thing it didn't, because Erin is an absolute monster.
After riding a top 5 all-time rate of 24-hour rapid intensification to Category 5 intensity over the weekend, Erin has survived eyewall replacement cycles and bouts with wind shear to become one of the larger hurricanes in recent years. While Erin's maximum sustained winds as of Wednesday evening are just shy of Category 3 strength, hurricane-force sustained winds span a diameter of 150 miles, with tropical-storm-force winds over 450 miles wide.
Erin's strongest winds have been located by Hurricane Hunters in a broad eastern eyewall wrapped around a smaller core, giving the storm the coiled appearance on visible satellite imagery of the world's largest and most energetic Cinnabon.
That tender, flaky spiral covers much of space between Bermuda and North Carolina's Outer Banks. Erin's center is taking a path down the middle of that passage, as its northward track bends northeast and accelerates through early Friday.
That will limit Erin's onshore wind impacts to low-end tropical-storm-force wind gusts along the mid-Atlantic coast, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from the Outer Banks north to the wild ponies of Chincoteague, Virginia.
However, the breadth of that windfield will drive peak 2-3'+ of storm surge across eastern North Carolina, and possibly as far north as New Jersey, despite the center passing at least 250 miles offshore. Coastal flooding is a major risk.
The main impacts of Erin will be thunderous surf of 6-12' or more and powerful rip currents through the first half of the weekend on beaches from Florida to New England. Littoral hazards have accounted for about 1-in-6 hurricane deaths in the last decade, so when the NHC urges "against swimming at most U.S. East Coast beaches due to life-threatening surf and rip currents," that's why.
Erin will become a vigorous post-tropical cyclone in the North Atlantic over the weekend, but its effects will linger, including on two tropical disturbances tagged by the NHC as code orange (40-60% chance) candidates for development over the next 7 days.
As Erin departs, it will reinforce jet stream troughing over the eastern U.S. -- the pattern which has frequently protected the East Coast over the last two decades -- and that should absorb the Orange Julius chasers to Erin's Cinnabon. Thus, there is no credible indication of any U.S. landfall threat for the rest of August.
Of the two tropical disturbances, a tropical wave about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is the stronger bet for medium-term development, most likely as it passes north of the islands this weekend and early next week. That deep eastern U.S. troughing will turn anything that forms north in the general direction of Bermuda, so we don't need to worry about it.
Another tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has been maintaining impressive thunderstorm activity for the last couple of days, but isn't quite organized enough at the surface to qualify as a tropical depression. This wave may briefly develop, but by Friday looks to be scoured by dry air and weaken again.
It's worth watching the leftover disturbance down the road should it continue west into the Caribbean, but there's no cause for concern. Otherwise, unfavorable upper-level wind conditions are expected to kick up this week over the Atlantic's Main Development Region, and the end of August and first week of September should be relatively quiet in the Tropics.
Things may perk up again towards mid-September and beyond, aided by an increasing tilt towards the La Niña-like environmental conditions favorable for hurricane activity.
That means you should have a default skepticism towards any rumors of storms Zuckerberg apps confront you with for the foreseeable future. As a rule, forecast models are not accurate or skillful for individual storms beyond seven days ahead of time.
One to two weeks out, the average output of many individual members of a model ensemble can give a useful sense of whether the overall pattern is favorable or unfavorable for tropical activity, but can't predict specific storm tracks. Location-specific impact forecasts really can't enter the conversation more than 3 to 5 days from a potential landfall.
Finally, consider the source of your information. Gulf Coast Extreme Hurricane/Monster Jam ALERT HQ is an estimable outlet for the latest news on Dennis Anderson, but those Sons of Guh-rave Digger didn't stay in school until 22 grade studying hurricanes like I did.
(Also I'm more of a Bigfoot fan.) If it was up to the fear merchants, the 21-year U.S. East Coast major hurricane landfall drought would have ended about ten times in the 2010s, instead of still thankfully going strong even in Erin's wake. Enjoy the break from tropical threats coming our way and keep watching the skies.
Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company providing forensic meteorology expert witness services and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscriptions. Visit weathertiger.com to learn more. Email Truchelut at [email protected].