In January, before the Trump administration came into office, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office published its 2025-2035 Budget and Economic Outlook. Based on existing policy, including the expiration of provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, budget deficits were scheduled to fall over the next couple of years before rising in fiscal year 2027. The CBO projected the budget deficit to come in at $1.87 trillion in fiscal year 2025 and rise to about $2.6 trillion in fiscal year 2034.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan independent public policy organization, projects that a cumulative $3.27 trillion will be added to the deficit from 2025 through 2034 based on a preliminary analysis of the House reconciliation bill.
That includes $2.69 trillion from the bill's spending and tax proposals plus $580 billion from higher interest costs. However, certain items in the House bill will expire after a set number of years. If these temporary provisions were extended and made permanent, $5.23 trillion would be added to the deficit during this time.