Investing.com -- UBS has cut its global GLP-1 sales forecast for 2030 to $130 billion, down from over $150 billion, citing weaker-than-expected data from next-generation assets and compounded product disruptions in the US market.
The revised forecast assumes roughly $80 billion in sales from obesity treatments and $50 billion from type-2 diabetes (T2D) therapies.
Despite the downgrade, UBS described the GLP-1 and incretin market as "one of the most exciting growth drivers in global pharma," forecasting a 19% sales CAGR between 2024 and 2030.
Volume growth is expected to remain robust, with 52 million patients projected to be taking a GLP-1 in 2030, up from 13 million in 2024, a 26% CAGR.
The obesity treatment segment is expected to see the largest expansion, from 4.4 million patients in 2024 to 34 million by 2030.
Price erosion is seen as a key factor in UBS's forecast. The bank expects compounded US price erosion of 7% for obesity treatments and 4.7% for T2D therapies between 2024 and 2030, with more moderate declines outside the U.S., 4% and 2%, respectively.
The inclusion of semaglutide in the US IRA negotiations in 2027 is expected to disproportionately affect T2D pricing.
UBS also anticipates shifts in market share, forecasting Eli Lilly to gain at the expense of Novo Nordisk. By 2030, UBS projects a global GLP-1 market split of 56.7% Eli Lilly, 38.9% Novo Nordisk, and 4.4% other competitors.
The bank highlighted that improvements in obesity treatment duration are unlikely, noting that "average stay time on Wegovy has been c.7 months" and modelling assumes patients will continue to cycle on and off therapy.
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