Labor Day weekend 2025 may bring a rare gift of no tropical storms or hurricanes.
* Tropical storm development is unlikely for Labor Day weekend in Florida, despite potential rainfall.
* A tropical wave off Africa has a low chance of development in the coming week.
* Warm Gulf waters pose a risk for potential tropical development near the U.S.
Is Labor Day weekend under threat from tropical weather?
The answer from National Hurricane Center forecasters is while rain may fall where you are in Florida each day during the three-day holiday stretch, it's highly unlikely a tropical system is making that happen.
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There's only one system on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map as Labor Day weekend begins.
The next named storms of the season will be Gabrielle and Humberto.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 a.m. Aug. 30:
Why are tropics quiet right now?
Historically, one or more tropical storms or hurricanes develop in the Atlantic Basin around Labor Day weekend, according to AccuWeather.
"Unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air across the Atlantic for another week and perhaps longer should bestow the rare gift of a tropical cyclone-free Labor Day weekend," said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, who works with the USA TODAY Network.
"It's possible that we do not have a named storm on Labor Day again this year. If so, that would make it two years in a row," said AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva via email.
"The last time that has happened -- two years in a row of no named storm in the Atlantic Basin on Labor Day -- was 1991 and 1992."
"This uncharacteristic calm belies the dangers of the busiest month of hurricane season," Truchelut said, adding September typically brings three to six named storms, two to four hurricanes, and one or two major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one that's a Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Any hurricanes coming to Florida?
The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa Aug. 31.
* Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa on Sunday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic next week.
➤ It's peak hurricane season, but there are no Katrina-like storms on horizon | WeatherTiger
Other tropical waves being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
* Tropical wave 1: A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26.5W from 20N southward, and moving west at 11 to 17 mph. No significant convection is occurring near this wave.
* Tropical wave 2: A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 17N southward, and moving west around 11 mph. It is within a plume of Sahara Dust, and there is no significant convection occurring near this wave.
* Tropical wave 3: A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78.5W from 19N southward, and moving west around 17 mph. No significant convection is depicted in association with this wave.
Could Florida face any tropical risks for Labor Day weekend?
We can (partially) thank Hurricane Erin for the quiet we're currently seeing in the tropics. Erin brought cooler water to the surface of the Atlantic, which inhibit tropical development. When combined with wind shear and dry air, it helps explain the lull in tropical development across the Atlantic.
However, conditions close to the United States are more favorable for tropical depression formation due to the Gulf Stream current and warm Gulf waters, according to AccuWeather.
"We expect an unusually strong dip in the jet stream to push into the Southeast states over the holiday weekend, which could help spin up homegrown tropical development," DaSilva said.
➤ Is there a cold front coming to Florida for Labor Day weekend? See forecast, check water quality
The risk for tropical development is low, but "regardless of development, a wet pattern looks to be in place for the holiday weekend across portions of the Southeast," DaSilva said via email Aug. 26.
"Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are extremely warm," DaSilva said. "This is of great concern, as the 'untapped' waters of the Gulf could allow any budding tropical entity to rapidly intensify."
Florida forecast for Labor Day weekend: Wet
A cold front is forecast to reach the waters off Northeast Florida Friday, Aug. 29, then stall, and remain nearly stationary through Aug. 31, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Expect a rainy holiday weekend through Labor Day with some potential for flooding, the National Weather Service Tampa Bay posted on X.
"A wet weekend is likely, though not a complete washout. Expect periods of showers/storms, with the highest chances on Saturday," the National Weather Service Tallahassee said.
The same conditions are expected for much of the rest of Florida.
"Rounds of heavy downpours will continue to impact our area into next week. Localized flooding will be possible each day," the National Weather Service Jacksonville said.
"Rain/storm chances remain elevated into the upcoming holiday weekend," the National Weather Service Melbourne said, adding that "locally heavy rainfall is a main threat, along with lightning, gusty winds, small hail."
South Florida won't be seeing as much sunshine over the holiday weekend either.
"Forecast confidence continues to increase that a heavy rainfall and increased urban flood threat will exist for South Florida this Labor Day weekend," the National Weather Service Miami said. "While the most likely values over the next five days is up to four inches of rainfall, localized high end amounts could present issues."
Rain isn't the only threat for the holiday weekend.
"Strengthening onshore winds and building surf will likely result in a high rip current risk at area beaches from Sunday through Tuesday," the National Weather Service Jacksonville warned.
Colorado State University predicting 'quieter period' in Atlantic basin through Sept. 2
"Following Hurricane Erin becoming post-tropical ... we anticipate a quieter period for Atlantic hurricane activity," Colorado State University said in its two-week forecast for Aug. 20-Sept. 2.
Historically, "the primary threat formation area for major hurricanes in late August is in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic," CSU said.
"We are approaching the climatological peak of the season, and there is certainly potential for other TCs -- tropical cyclones -- to form, especially given that the large-scale environment doesn't look especially harsh."
What should you do now to prepare for hurricane season?
Officials regularly encourage Florida residents to prepare for storms before a hurricane is approaching, while shelves are fully stocked and you aren't battling crowds all rushing to the store at the same time.
➤ Don't have a hurricane supply kit? From the basics to the extras, here's what you need
"It only takes one storm to make it an impactful year for your community," the National Hurricane Center Miami posted on X. "Hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint."
On Aug. 1, specific hurricane supplies became permanently tax-free in Florida, ranging from batteries to generators.
➤ See list of emergency supplies you can now buy tax free
Florida weather radar for Aug. 30, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them.
* (June 20)
* (June 29)
* (July 5)
* : (Aug. 3)
* : (Aug. 11; hurricane Aug. 15; major hurricane Aug. 16)
* : (Aug. 23)
* Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL
* Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh
* Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah
* Jerry: JEHR-ee
* Karen: KAIR-ren
* Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh
* Melissa: meh-LIH-suh
* Nestor: NES-tor
* Olga: OAL-guh
* Pablo: PAHB-lo
* Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh
* Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en
* Tanya: TAHN-yuh
* Van: van
* Wendy: WEN-dee
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters are watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
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This story has been updated to include new information.