West Palm Beach, FLA. (WPEC) -- Gabrielle remains a well-organized tropical storm, though its low-level center is currently hidden beneath high cirrus clouds. Satellite and microwave data confirm that the storm's center is still displaced to the west of its strongest thunderstorms -- a sign that moderate wind shear, or disruptive winds at different altitudes, is still affecting the system. Despite that, the storm's convection has been intense, with frequent lightning and very cold cloud tops, which are signs of strong updrafts.
Winds remain around 45 mph, and recent satellite data shows that tropical-storm-force winds are mostly confined to the eastern side of the storm. Gabrielle is moving northwest at about 11 mph, guided by a mid-level high pressure system over the central Atlantic. Over the next few days, it's expected to curve northward between that high and a trough -- a dip in the jet stream -- over the southeastern U.S.
Forecast models have shifted slightly west for the next few days, but they still keep Gabrielle's core well east of Bermuda Sunday night into Monday. That said, with forecast errors and storm hazards extending far from the center, Bermuda should continue to monitor the storm. By midweek, Gabrielle will likely get caught in faster winds higher up in the atmosphere, which has led to a southward shift in the longer-range track.
As wind shear relaxes over the next day or two, Gabrielle should become more vertically aligned -- meaning its structure will improve -- and that should allow it to strengthen. Some models are conservative, while others are more aggressive, with a few even suggesting Gabrielle could reach major hurricane strength. The official forecast doesn't go that far but does show a peak near 90 mph winds in about 2-3 days. With the southward track adjustment, Gabrielle's transition to a non-tropical system may be delayed, and it's expected to remain a tropical cyclone through the next five days.
Meanwhile, a tropical wave well south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Right now, the system is disorganized and not showing signs of quick development. As it moves west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through next week, there's a slight chance it could gradually organize.
The National Hurricane Center gives it a near 0% chance of development over the next 48 hours and just a 20% chance over the next 7 days. So, while it's not a major concern at the moment, it's one to keep on the radar as it continues westward.