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Free agency, the 2025 NFL Draft and the entire 2025 NFL schedule has been released.
As the league calendar shifts to organized team activities and mandatory minicamp, all 32 of the NFL's rosters are mostly formed at this point. That's why now is an ideal time to analyze win totals throughout the NFL. Let's take a closer look at the AFC South.
Despite the Houston Texans winning the division in each of the last two seasons, it hasn't been in dominant fashion. They did so in 2024 by two games, finishing with a 10-7 record while the Indianapolis Colts went 8-9. Just a year earlier in 2023, the division was decided in Week 18 in a winner-take-all showdown between the Texans and Colts. Houston narrowly escaped by forcing a turnover on downs late to survive with a 23-19 victory.
With the Texans young pillars at quarterback (C.J. Stroud) and edge rusher (Will Anderson Jr.), they remain the favorites for the division, but the rest of the division is on the come up. The Jacksonville Jaguars imported Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen to be their new head coach and then traded up for 2024 Heisman Trophy-winning wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter. The Indianapolis Colts added two new critical pieces to their secondary with the free agency signings of safety Camryn Bynum and cornerback Charvarius Ward. Plus, the Tennessee Titans selected 2024 Davey O'Brien Award winner (best college quarterback) Cam Ward out of Miami with the first overall pick.
Upon taking a closer look it's pretty favorable for the division as a whole, perhaps with the exception of first-place Houston (.481 opponent win percentage, 18th hardest schedule in NFL). The Titans (.450 opponent win percentage, fourth easiest 2025 schedule), Colts (.464 opponent win percentage, eighth easiest 2025 schedule) and Jaguars (.467 opponent win percentage, tied for ninth easiest 2025 schedule). Outside of playing each other six times combined in 2025, they have both AFC West and NFC West as their two featured divisions and one game against an NFC South squad. Let's zoom in on every AFC South team's over/under win total for the upcoming 2025 season and project where they'll fall when the games are played.
Win totals: AFC East * AFC North * AFC South * AFC West * NFC East * NFC North * NFC South * NFC West
NFL odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Houston Texans
Over 9.5 (+118) / Under 9.5 (-140)
Houston has hit exactly 10 wins in each of the last two seasons, narrowly eclipsing their current win total of 9.5. It's certainly not a certainty that they can do it again in 2025, but it's within the realm of possibility. The Texans open with consecutive reigning division winners at the NFC West champion Los Angeles Rams in Week 1 and home against the NFC South champion Buccaneers in Week 2.
If they can get at least one win out of that stretch, they'll have a winnable next two games at the Jaguars and home against the Titans. Then, they'll have to hit the road in Week 5 to face the Baltimore Ravens before their bye in Week 6. If they can win all their AFC South games (five) through the first 13 weeks of the season, Houston would only need to find one more win before facing the Arizona Cardinals, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers and the Colts again in Weeks 15-18 to close out the regular season. Ten wins feels pretty attainable once again for the Texans in 2025.
Lean: Over 9.5
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over 7.5 (-115) / Under 7.5 (-105)
As mentioned above, the Jaguars are tied for the ninth-easiest schedule in the NFL in 2025 based off of opponents' 2024 records. Jacksonville's schedule appears even more favorable when using the Sharp Football Analysis methodology of going off of opponents' 2025 win totals. That formula indicates the Jaguars possess the sixth-easiest slate in the NFL. If quarterback Trevor Lawrence can avoid the injuries that have befallen him the last couple of seasons, clearing 7.5 wins should be pretty easy.
Best bet: Over 7.5
Indianapolis Colts
Over 7.5 (-120) / Under 7.5 (+100)
Taking the under here is purely a vote of no confidence in the Colts' quarterback situation in tandem with the bottom two teams in the division the last few years, the Jaguars and Colts, significantly improving. Anthony Richardson, the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, became just the fourth quarterback since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to lead the NFL in yards per completion (14.4) while ranking dead last in completion percentage (47.7%) in 2024. Richardson has a rocket launcher for an arm, but he desperately needs to become more accurate. His 47.7% completion percentage is the worst in a single season since fellow former Florida Gator Tim Tebow's 46.5% in the 2011 season.
Richardson's competition in Indianapolis' training camp battle is fellow former top 10 pick Daniel Jones. His 2024 season with the New York Giants became the fourth time in the last five seasons Jones has started each of his team's first 10 games and had fewer than 10 touchdown passes. That's something every other NFL quarterback combined to do four times total in the last five years, according to CBS Sports Research. Jones is also on a cold streak of 58 consecutive starts without throwing three or more touchdowns in a game, which is the longest such streak in the last 30 seasons, per CBS Sports Research.
If the quarterback isn't good, almost nothing else matters.
Best bet: Under 7.5
Tennessee Titans
Over 5.5 (-150) / Under 5.5 (+126)
As long as Cam Ward isn't one of the most turnover prone quarterbacks of the last 15 years, which Will Levis was for the Titans in 2024, then Tennessee should win at least six games. Tennessee reinforcing their wide receiver room with the signing of veteran Tyler Lockett and their offensive line room with the signings of left tackle Dan Moore Jr. and right guard Kevin Zeitler should give Ward the chance to avoid that fate. His returning arsenal of Pro Bowl running back Tony Pollard and wide receiver Calvin Ridley are pretty steady playmakers.
Highest rate of plays with sack, fumble or interception, Last 15 yearsPct of Plays with Sack, Fumble or INT
2009 JaMarcus Russell (OAK)
17.8%
2024 Will Levis (TEN)
16.3%
2014 Josh McCown (TB)
15.5%
2022 Justin Fields (CHI)
15.4%
They also have one of the 10 easiest schedules in the NFL, no matter how you slice it. The Titans have a game against the Cleveland Browns and against the New Orleans Saints, who no longer have Derek Carr after an abrupt offseason retirement. There's at least two wins right there. Indianapolis, who they play twice, could very well have a worse situation than the Titans, who will likely start Ward as a rookie. Tennessee should be a six-win team at worst.
Best bet: Over 5.5