* Invest 95L strengthened into Tropical Storm Jerry Oct. 7.
* Jerry is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the next day or two.
* Where the strengthening system will go remains unclear at this time, but most models show it curving north and staying away from the U.S.
Tropical Storm Jerry has formed in the central Atlantic, and the National Hurricane Center issued its first advisory on the system at 11 a.m.
Jerry is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the next day or two.
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
Where the strengthening system will go remains unclear, and AccuWeather forecasters are advising residents in the Caribbean and along the U.S. east coast to closely monitor the tropics.
Tropical Storm Jerry is one of two systems appearing on the Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map.
A trough of low pressure is located over the Yucatan Peninsula. Development is possible as it moves into the Bay of Campeche later today, Oct. 7.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 7:
Storm tracker: Tropical Storm Jerry moving toward Caribbean
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Jerry
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Track Tropical Storm Jerry
Tropical Storm Jerry expected to strengthen into hurricane
Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane in a day or two, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Where could Tropical Storm Jerry go?
Where Tropical Storm Jerry will go remains uncertain.
"Steering winds may cause the storm to pass close to the northeastern Caribbean islands late this week or this upcoming weekend," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski. "This would bring a glancing blow of rain and wind.
"While many options remain possible with its future track, the most likely track appears to turn the future storm to the north as it passes near the Caribbean islands," says Pydynowski. "This would keep it east of the U.S. mainland."
Residents in the Caribbean, along with those along the east coast of the United States and Bermuda, were advised to monitor the tropics and be prepared.
The National Hurricane Center said watches may be required for a portion of the northern Leeward Islands later today or tonight.
Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
No.
While Tropical Storm Jerry is expected to strengthen into a hurricane later this week, its path remains uncertain. Most spaghetti models at this time show it curving north and staying away from the U.S.
Forecasters warned, though, residents should always be prepared since forecasts can change.
What other tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now?
Along with Tropical Storm Jerry, the National Hurricane Center is tracking a trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf:
Southwestern Gulf: A trough of low pressure located over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche later today, and some slow development is possible before it moves inland over southern Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and southern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days: low, 10 percent.
The National Hurricane Center also is watching two tropical waves in the Atlantic basin:
* An Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W from 21N southward, moving west at 11 to 17 mph. No significant convection is occurring near this wave.
* Another tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean along 62.5W, moving west at around 11 mph. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 16N to 20N between 60W and 62W.
What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone -- which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane -- could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted by Tropical Storm Jerry, tropical waves out there?
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from Tropical Storm Jerry or the other tropical waves out there.
The National Hurricane Center said Jerry is forecast to pass near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday. Residents there were advised to monitor the progress of the storm as there is a risk of wind, surf, and rainfall impacts.
Forecasters urge all residents to keep an eye on the tropics and to always be prepared.
Florida weather radar for Oct. 7, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them. The first hurricane of the season typically forms Aug. 11.
* (June 20)
* (June 29)
* (July 5)
* : (Aug. 3)
* : (Aug. 11; hurricane Aug. 15; major hurricane Aug. 16)
* : (Aug. 23)
* : (Sept. 17; hurricane Sept. 21; major hurricane Sept. 22)
* : (Sept. 24; hurricane Sept. 26; major hurricane Sept. 25)
* : (Sept. 28; hurricane Sept. 30)
* Jerry: Oct. 7
* Karen: KAIR-ren
* Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh
* Melissa: meh-LIH-suh
* Nestor: NES-tor
* Olga: OAL-guh
* Pablo: PAHB-lo
* Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh
* Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en
* Tanya: TAHN-yuh
* Van: van
* Wendy: WEN-dee
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters are watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say 'tropical cyclone' on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
* Hurricane: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
* Typhoon: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
* Cyclone: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
What's next?
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This story has been updated with new information.