The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees have gone in totally opposite directions this summer.
After losing to the Yankees on June 6, the Red Sox trailed them by 10.5 games in the standings. They were in fourth place, five games below .500 and seemingly going nowhere. FanGraphs gave Boston a 12.5% chance of making the playoffs, a 0.7% chance to win the division and a 0.5% chance to win it all.
Meanwhile, New York was rolling. The defending World Series champs were 16 games over .500 and led the AL East by 5.5 games. Per FanGraphs, they had a 98.6% chance of reaching the postseason, an 88.7% chance to win the division and a 16.8% chance to win the championship.
Since then, however, the tables have turned. The Red Sox have gotten absurdly hot, winning 34 of their last 50 games, including nine of their last 10. They passed the Yankees in the standings over the weekend and now find themselves in second place, just three games out of first.
Meanwhile, New York has collapsed over the last two months, going 21-31 since June 6. The Yankees lost their division lead in early July and slipped to third place in early August. They've lost five straight games despite getting Aaron Judge back from the injured list on Tuesday.
After Boston won on Tuesday and New York lost, the Red Sox officially have better playoff odds than the Yankees for the first time this season. Boston has an 81.1% chance to reach the postseason, according to FanGraphs, while New York's odds have tumbled to 79.0%.
The Red Sox lead the Yankees by 3.5 games in the standings with fewer than 50 games to play. Boston's also dominated New York in their head-to-head matchups this year, taking five of six from its archrival.
The teams still have two more series on the schedule: a four-game set at Yankee Stadium in late August and three games at Fenway Park in mid-September. Those seven games will likely have major playoff implications for both sides.
In the meantime, it's turning out to be a wild summer in the AL East.