We're two weeks into NFL preseason, and fantasy football draft season has reached a boiling point, so we have no time to waste. I know defenses are almost always an afterthought in your fantasy football draft prep, but every position on your team is worthy of some modicum of thought, so this article can be your one-stop shop for all things fantasy football defense.
Earlier this season, I put out an article that went over my favorite draft targets based on the early-season schedule, so you can check that out here. Today, I'm going to give you my pre-season DST rankings for the 2025 fantasy football season. But, before I do that, I wanted to briefly go over my strategy for drafting fantasy football defenses because I truly believe that there is one.
If you want to just skip below to the rankings, you're more than welcome to do that as well.
While many people will say, "Who cares? I just stream" or "Just take whoever's left in the last round," I do believe we can maximize the effectiveness of our drafts with just a touch of strategy. Drafting a D/ST doesn't have the same make-or-break consequence as drafting your first-round wide receiver or your sleeper RB in the middle rounds, but it is still a decision with ripple effects that can cost you one week or potentially more during your season.
My first rule is to never be the first person to draft a defense. In 2017, ESPN analyzed 15 years of ADP data and found that ONLY TWO TIMES over 15 seasons did a D/ST that was drafted first, second, third, or fourth, according to ADP, actually finish as the top-ranked fantasy defense. I've continued checking to make sure that trend has held firm since ESPN published that article, and it has. Jumping your leaguemates to try to draft the "best" defense a few rounds early by selecting one of the top three defenses drafted will give you a 3.8% chance of landing the top overall defense in fantasy football. That's simply not worth the risk for me.
I will also never draft more than one defense. I do believe in holding two defenses later in the season, but not coming out of drafts. I also don't believe in thinking about "Rest of Season" rankings until about Week 10 or 11. I get many "Who do you prefer ROS?" questions in the first few weeks of the season, and I always urge people to recalibrate how we approach that.
We're not looking to find the top D/ST when we leave the draft room. Sure, it would be great to land the 2023 Raiders D/ST in drafts, considering they were drafted 17th amongst D/STs and finished seventh at the end of the year. However, before Week 8, the Raiders DST averaged just 4.4 points per game and scored a TOTAL of six points in the first four weeks. You would have almost assuredly dropped them and had to pick them back up on the waivers when they got hot. The defensive landscape changes very quickly, so we want to just plan two or three weeks at a time with our DST picks and try to get ahead of poor or good schedules.
Lastly, when in doubt, hunt for defenses that get turnovers. In the offseason, I went back over all the defensive data I use, marking down where each DST ranked 1-32 in every stat I use for my rankings. I then looked at the top 10 overall defenses and saw how many of them also finished in the top 10 in a given metric. Five of the top 10 defenses finished in the top 10 in explosive plays allowed per game, and five of the top 10 overall defenses also finished top 10 in quarterback hit rate and passes defended per dropback, which is nice to see. However, seven of the top 10 overall defenses also finished top 10 in turnover rate. That may not surprise you, but it's better than the sack leaders and equal to the scoring rate leaders. So, in short, use turnover potential as a tiebreaker for choosing your defenses.
Now, let's get to the rankings.
These rankings are based on last year's performance, off-season moves, and my BOD rankings formula, which uses some of my preferred metrics like pressure rate and knockdowns to try to identify which teams are doing things on the field that will consistently lead to fantasy success. If you're new to the BOD formula, the equation is:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTIVITY RATE x 1.5) + TACKLES FOR A LOSS/NO GAIN PER GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
MINUS
(EXPECTED POINTS ADDED PER PLAY + OPPONENT SCORING RATE)
Since we have yet to see any of these units play meaningful snaps together (yes, I'm including preseason games), this is just an educated guess based on past success, projected strength of schedule, and how I think the offseason changes will impact this year's performance. There will likely be a decent amount of moving things around in the first few weeks of the season.
With that out of the way, onto the rankings.
Denver was the top-ranked defense last year, averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game, so it's not surprising to see them here. They ranked 1st in PFF's Pass Rush Productivity Rate, 1st in Expected Points Allowed (EPA) Per Play, 3rd in opponents' scoring rate, and 11th in turnover rate. It's just an incredibly solid defense that returns all of their crucial personnel and also signed linebacker Dre Greenlaw from the 49ers. There just aren't many flaws to find here.
We rode the Minnesota defense for most of last season. They finished 2nd in fantasy points per game with 9.5. They finished 1st in opponent's scoring rate, 2nd in turnover rate, 3rd in EPA allowed per play, and had the 6th-fewest missed tackles per game. They then went out and signed Jeff Okudah, Jonathan Allen, and Javon Hargrave in free agency. I know those last two guys are past their prime, but when you add them to a defense that has Jonathan Greenard, Blake Cashman, Dallas Turner, Josh Metellus, Harrison Smith, and Mekhi Blackmon, then you have a deep unit that will be well-coached by Brian Flores.
Last year, Pittsburgh was the 4th-ranked defense with 8.6 fantasy points scored per game. They finished 4th in turnover rate, 8th in opponents' scoring rate, 9th in EPA per play allowed, and had the 4th-fewest missed tackles per game. Their only real loss in free agency was Larry Ogunjobi, and he was a rotational player, plus they replaced him with first-round pick Derrick Harmon, so the loss shouldn't be felt much at all. I expect Joey Porter Jr. to take another step forward, and he'll pair well with veteran corners Darius Slay and Jalen Ramsey. Pittsburgh is always one of the better fantasy units, and I don't see any reason to expect otherwise this season.
The Eagles got a lot of their fantasy value from big plays and touchdowns last season, but they finished as the 7th-ranked defense, averaging 7.9 fantasy points per game. They finished 2nd in opponents' scoring rate, 2nd in EPA allowed per play, and 5th in turnover rate. The Eagles lost Darius Slay, Milton Williams, Isaiah Rodgers, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and Avonte Maddox in the off-season, but they have plenty of young talent littered across this defense. Considering this defense hit its stride in the second half of the season, the youth may be starting to figure it out a bit, so perhaps the Eagles' defense will hit the ground running in 2025.
Buffalo was the 8th-ranked defense last year, averaging 7.8 fantasy points per game. They finished 1st in turnover rate and 11th in opponents' scoring rate, but we're pretty middle of the pack elsewhere. However, there have been a few key changes. Matt Milano is back and healthy, which is crucial for the defense. They revamped their defensive line by signing Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht, and Larry Ogunjobi, and then drafted T.J. Sanders, Landon Jackson, and behemoth Deone Walker in the draft. First-round cornerback Maxwell Hairston and second-year safety Cole Bishop may both miss the start of the season, which isn't ideal, but this is a veteran secondary and a well-coached defense, so they should be good to go.
Green Bay surprised last season and finished as the 3rd-ranked defense with 8.7 fantasy points per game. They finished 3rd in turnover rate, 5th in opponents' scoring rate, 5th in EPA allowed per play, and 12th in Pass Rush Productivity rate. They did lose T.J. Slaton in free agency, which could impact their defensive line production, but they should also see more from younger players like Lukas Van Ness and Edgerrin Cooper. They brought in Nate Hobbs to replace Jaire Alexander, who was no longer a real asset at cornerback. This is a unit filled with young players with upside, so I think they could put together another good season.
I was initially surprised my rankings had Detroit so high, but they finished as the 10th-ranked defense last year with 7.2 fantasy points per game. They ranked 6th in Pass Rush Productivity rate, 7th in EPA allowed per play, 7th in turnover rate, 10th in opponents' scoring rate, and missed the fewest tackles per game in the NFL. Of course, their defensive coordinator, Aaron Glenn, is now coaching the Jets, so we can't be sure how that impacts the success of the defense. Of course, we also expect Aidan Hutchinson to play more than five games and Marcus Davenport to play more than two. They also used a first-round pick on Tyleik Williams and should consistently get pressure on the quarterback this year, which is always something we love from our fantasy defense.
The Seahawks defense was bound to get better with Mike Macdonald leading the charge, and they finished 6th in fantasy points per game with 8. Their defense ranked 4th in Pass Rush Productivity rate, 7th in opponents' scoring rate, and 9th in EPA allowed per play. They struggled against the run and failed to force many turnovers, but there is plenty of talent on this side of the ball. DeMarcus Lawrence should help get pressure on the quarterback, and linebacker Ernest Jones will now be around for a full season to help the run defense. The secondary has plenty of young talent, but also added second-round safety Nick Emmanwori to help solidify the unit. They could be a sneaky strong group this year.
Houston finished last season as the 5th-ranked defense with 8.2 fantasy points per game. They ranked 6th in EPA allowed per play, 6th in turnover rate, and 9th in opponents' scoring rate. They'll hope to get a fully healthy season from Will Anderson and brought in Darrell Taylor to add pass-rush chops to the defense. The secondary has plenty of young talent with Derek Stingley, Calen Bullock, and Jaylin Smith, but Jimmie Ward is dealing with off-field legal issues, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson suffered a major leg injury in the pre-season, so that does bring some question marks into the start of the year.
I know many people have Baltimore higher, and I get it, but I need to trust my process a bit here. Last year, Baltimore finished as the 12th-ranked defense, averaging 7.1 fantasy points per game. They had the 5th-fewest missed tackles per game in the league, but didn't finish in the top 10 in any of the metrics I used for my rankings, other than ranking 8th in EPA allowed per play. They had the 2nd-most sacks in the league, but finished 19th in Pass Rush Productivity rate and 21st in pressure rate, so how sustainable is that sack total? Mike Green should help with the pass rush, Malaki Starks was a good pick for the Ravens' secondary, and Nate Wiggins, Marlon Humphrey, and Kyle Hamilton are clearly talented. How much does Jaire Alexander have left in the tank, and will this defensive line be able to get more consistent pressure this season? Those questions keep Baltimore down here for me.
The Chargers were the 9th-ranked defense last year, finishing with 7.5 fantasy points per game. They finished 4th in opponents' scoring rate, 4th in EPA allowed per play, and then just outside of the top-ten in a few other metrics. Much like Baltimore, they finished with plenty of sacks but had subpar pressure rates and Pass Rush Productivity grades, and then lost Joey Bosa and Poona Ford this offseason. Kristian Fulton and Morgan Fox are also gone, but Donte Jackson brings some veteran presence to the secondary, and Khalil Mack, Teair Tart, Da'Shawn Hand, Bud Dupree, and Derwin James are here. Some young players could afford to take a step forward, but this should be a strong unit again.
My fantasy model is intrigued by the Chiefs this season after they finished 11th in Pass Rush Productivity rate, 12th in opponents' scoring rate, and had the third fewest missed tackles per game of any team in football. Chris Jones and George Karlaftis lead a defensive line that did lose Derrick Nnadi, but Ashon Gillotte was added in the draft to add some more firepower. Kristian Fulton should help in the secondary alongside Trent McDuffie, and I did like Nohl Williams in the draft. There aren't a ton of household names here, but it's always a well-coached unit that should face offenses that are playing from behind and need to throw.
The Bears biggest addition may have been hiring Dennis Allen to run their defense. He was not a good head coach in New Orleans, but he has always been a solid defensive coordinator. The Bears also brought in Grady Jarrett to help against the run and drafted Shemar Turner in the second round. Unlike the Chargers and Ravens, the Bears ranked 5th in Pass Rush Productivity rate and 8th in pressure rate, but were just 16th in sacks. I expect that to rectify itself a bit this season. The Bears secondary and linebacker group is essentially the same, and I think this unit takes a step forward this season.
If you have Myles Garrett on your team, then I'm never going to fully fade your defense. First-round pick Mason Graham should also help the interior of this defensive line, but the Browns were 2nd in Pass Rush Productivity rate last season. They were also 6th in opponents' scoring rate, but they allowed some big plays and didn't produce enough turnovers. I think Greg Newsome II and Denzel Ward remain a solid duo at cornerback, and so I expect the Browns to be a solid unit once again.
The big talking point here is Micah Parsons. As of now, he is on the Cowboys, so we're going to treat it as if that's the case. Dallas was 3rd in Pass Rush Productivity rate last year, but gave up tons of points and big plays. Donovan Ezeiruaku was drafted to replace Demarcus Lawrence, and Shavon Revel Jr. was a solid draft pick who fell due to a knee injury. Trevon Diggs will be a solid addition once he's ready to practice, but it's unclear when that will be. DaRon Bland, Kenneth Murray Jr., and others will make this a solid unit, but I think they could have a strong second half under their belt when they get healthy.
I was a big fan of the Rams' pass-rush last year. They were 7th in Pass Rush Productivity rate and have plenty of talent with Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, Byron Young, and Braden Fiske. I expect more sacks in 2025. Their secondary can afford to improve their performance this season, but if they can be even an average unit, then I think this defensive line can carry them to solid fantasy production.
I'm not going to cover every unit from this point on, but I'll highlight some of the defense I'm looking at in these groups.
I also mentioned in my early-season schedule article why I like both the Cardinals and 49ers if you're looking to attack schedule in your drafts.
The Patriots were also part of that early-season schedule article, but it's not a defense I really love. None of the teams in this tier are.
Just a reminder that my weekly DST rankings will come out every Tuesday morning (updated as the wee goes on), and my Pick 3 DST YouTube video series will go live on Tuesday evening during the season, so make sure you always check both of those out.