TAMPA, Fla. - Tropical Storm Erin hasn't gained much strength since forming on Monday over the Atlantic, but the National Hurricane Center says that should change soon as the storm moves west toward more favorable conditions for development.
As of 5 a.m. Wednesday, Erin was located at 16.5N and 41.9W with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.
The storm is moving west at 20 mph.
FOX 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg says Erin is getting some of its convection back, but it's also surrounded by Saharan dust, which has limited the storm's development so far.
Still, development should pick up in the next 48-72 hours as the storm moves over warmer water.
Erin should become the first Atlantic hurricane of the season late this week, according to Osterberg, then intensify into a major Category 3 storm north of Puerto Rico over the weekend.
"At that point, it will be well north of the islands. It will be well north of San Juan," Osterberg said. "They'll get some hefty surf and rip currents there, but on a path like this, as long as it takes this middle portion of the cone, they should be OK."
As of Wednesday morning, models still show Erin making a turn to the north and staying east of the U.S. next week.
Osterberg says there are two areas of high pressure: one over the Atlantic and another over the southeastern U.S. Erin should go between those areas of high pressure, keeping it off the coast if the current track holds.
"Where it takes that turn makes a difference in the impacts on the Bahamas or the East Coast with the surf and high waves," Osterberg said.
Until it makes the anticipated turn, though, the best course of action is to wait and watch.